Everything You Need to Know About Revenue Forecasting
Everything You Need to Know About Revenue Forecasting RevOps 10 min As much as 80% of sales organizations miss the mark on revenue forecasting by 25% or more. That’s a particularly worrying number, primarily because of 3 reasons: Global volatility and economic downturn Complex buyer journey and sales processes Added pressure on revenue leaders to deliver predictable growth A revenue forecast serves as a guide to achieving realistic revenue goals to tide over unpredictability. This exhaustive guide lays down everything you should know about revenue forecasts and how to do them right, including: – What is revenue forecasting? – Why is revenue forecasting important? – What are the key foundations of revenue forecasting? – Accurate Forecasting Using Revenue Forecasting Models If you’re short on time, here’s a quick summary of this blog: What is Revenue Forecasting? Revenue forecasting predicts how much revenue your business may earn for a certain period. It uses historical data to make educated speculations about the potential revenue. Contrary to common assumptions, revenue forecasts aren’t based solely on quantitative data. They’re also enriched by qualitative data. To sum it up, revenue forecasting models answer the key business question: How does your current performance take you where you want to go? It’s not unheard of, even in SaaS circles, to confuse revenue and sales forecasting. But there are 3 key differences you must know if you want to build accurate forecasts. Why is Revenue Forecasting Important? A revenue forecast gives you, quite literally, the “foresight” to see what the future brings. Here’s how you can benefit from it: 1. Know expected revenue & budget Revenue forecasts give you insight into how much money you can expect to generate from product sales. This, in turn, will give you the information to set up budgets for RevOps and other teams. On the other hand, you can also track expenses for the period and optimize your cash flow. 2. Strategize growth You can strategize with key stakeholders by figuring out your expected revenue and budget. These meetings throw light on what actions you can undertake to increase earnings. Two-thirds of businesses consider revenue process optimization important to achieving customer retention goals. Whereas 63% think revenue strategy is important for adapting to new market expansion. Revenue forecast provides the basis of growth strategy showing you: How quickly can you scale What will be your future expansion in terms of earnings, expenses, and markets How can you set and adjust revenue goals to bridge gaps between predictions and real-world performance 3. Set appropriate long-term goals Other than business goals, you can use revenue forecasts to set other long-term goals for marketing campaigns, software purchases, and resource allocation. For instance, they can be used to decide how much staff you will need in RevOps teams and how many resources you must hire corresponding to each function. 4. Make informed decisions Revenue forecasts ensure you’re not caught off guard in unpredictable times and can make data-backed decisions with accurate analyses. For example, while preparing a forecast, you may find that sales for June-July 2022 were lower than the rest of the year. The first thought would be to attribute this to seasonal demand. But if you know how to forecast revenue, you dig deeper into the data. Then, you find the underlying reason–your sales head left the company during this time. You can decide not to base next year’s forecast on the same numbers in June-July 2022. 5. Helps secure funding Revenue forecasting is responsible for your organization’s general profitability. To secure funding, you can make serious financial projections (including the profit & loss statement and cash expectations). Investors look at these numbers and decide whether to invest in your business. Now that the benefits are on the table, you can understand more about what is revenue forecasting and how to create one. To begin, we look at its key foundations. Key Foundations of Revenue Forecasting To understand further why revenue forecasting is important, you must take great care in maintaining these 3 foundations: 1. Revenue goal Revenue goals are realistic financial targets that improve business growth. These targets or goals must be based on actual market data, not gut data. 2. Revenue pipeline Your revenue pipeline includes active, upcoming, and prospective deals. It acts as a map to show where prospects and existing customers are placed in your sales funnel. The pipeline is where your leads turn into customers and is, therefore, the primary revenue source. 3. Product delivery You must track and manage the delivery of your product or solution. This includes monitoring: How much of each contract is earned How much of it is due in the future It also covers the management of customer payments and lowering customer churn due to poor delivery. How to Forecast Revenue Using Models Businesses primarily use 4 revenue forecasting models. We’ve discussed each one below. 1. Straight Line Revenue Forecast The simplest of all models, straight line revenue forecast, uses historical data to project revenue growth for a specific period. It typically assumes that the previous year’s growth rate will remain the same for the next. The method first determines the revenue growth rate and then calculates forecasted revenue. The formula is: Current Revenue (1 + Growth Rate / 100) = Revenue Forecast Let’s break this down with an example. If you’re experiencing a revenue growth rate of 30% in 2022 with current revenue at $100,000, your forecasted revenue for 2023 will be: 100,000 (1 + 30 / 100) = $130,000 Given its simplicity, the straight line model works best for startups or companies preparing their first revenue forecast. A few major drawbacks of this method are that: It assumes the growth rate will remain constant It doesn’t factor in macroeconomic changes 2. Weighted Moving Average Revenue Forecast The model considers moving averages of historical data to create a forecast. Most commonly, businesses use 3 and 5-month forecasts. But feel free to explore, experiment and use this for as short as 1 month, too. You must add weights to each average to build a more accurate revenue forecasting model. For example, the revenue for Q1